What a “3rd” purchase of The Legend of the Galactic Heroes.
I’m stunned myself, but this time I bought it for my daughter, in light of the recent conflict between the US and China.
(I’m a fierce Kirchis advocate and have read it many times, so I bought it from the second volume of the novel version.)
Incidentally, I had to go to the theater to see the Star Wars Arc because they couldn’t wait for the on-demand broadcast.
But when it comes to The Legend of the Galactic Heroes, the conflict between empire and alliance is portrayed in the same way as in the real world.
It’s so brilliant that I can’t help but use it to analyze the conflict between the US and China in the real world.
Incidentally, although Jan Wenli is a great magician, we have a powerful tool in our arsenal: the magic of the memo.
So, this time, by using the “magic of the memo”, let’s analyze the confrontation between the United States and China like Yan Wenli did, and try to predict its future development.
Jan Wenli is
In the novel The Legend of Galactic Heroes, humanity exists in two major forces: the Empire and the Alliance. The Empire continues to be oppressed by the Emperor, and a junior nobleman, Lord Reinhard von Roengram, is trying to overthrow him.
Meanwhile, the Alliance is corrupted by political corruption, and the people’s minds are separated from the government. This causes the military to stage a coup d’état.
Both sides are in a troubled situation. In such a situation, Yang Wenli has come to the fore in the Alliance.
His father was a merchant who sailed his ships through the stars. His father was a merchant who sailed among the stars. Yan Wenli grew up in an environment where he wanted to be a historian, but when his father died, he was forced to enter the history department of the military academy.
When his father died, he was forced to enter the history department at the military academy.
His character is gentle and logical, as he aspires to become a scholar, but he also has the independence of a merchant’s son. My daughter called him “Rationalii-chan” when she was in elementary school.
She gets along well with Kirchyce, and her manner is really calm. By the way, Kirchis, as Lord Reinhardt’s confidant, also has an excellent brain on top of his gentle nature.
Our daughter has great sympathy for Kirchis, saying “the better the person, the sooner they die”. (So now I’m guessing Julian.)
No, no, no, the remake Kirch Ice has sharper eyes, and I can see why the lady, a lady, would admire him. He has a refreshing personality and is truly a “nice guy.”
Now by the way, getting back to Magician Yan Wen Li, he doesn’t have any characteristics of an unusually prominent intelligence quotient. Well, it’s only enough to be able to go to the military academy’s strategy department, so he’s in the excellent category.
In fact, what he excels at is his thinking skills. He is adept at time-series analysis techniques like economist Tetsuya Watanabe, startup company president Yuji Maeda, and New York University political science professor Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (BDM).
This is a method of using the positions and goals of the people involved as basic data and evaluating & predicting how they will change over the course of a series of events.
Professor BDM, who was also invited to the CIA, was able to use a computer program to predict the change in position of the people involved from the data. There is a limit to what the human mind can calculate when there are a large number of people involved, as is the case today.
This may seem like a difficult thing to do, but it is basically something we do every day.
- A wants to be friends with B
- B gets a 0.1 point increase in favor for gifts
- Once you reach 1 point, a friendship is established
Looked at this way, if A continues to give gifts to B on a regular basis, they can become friends for the tenth time. For Jan Wenley, who had hoped to become a historian, the object of his analysis was simply the real world.
However, he was undefeated because he was very good at insight into the psychological state of this opponent. In fact, this was also something he cultivated by going to the library on a regular basis.
If you are interested, it would be interesting to read “The Magic of Memos” and try it out for self-analysis and improvement studies.
Predictions for the upcoming development
Now that we have finished the overview and introduction of the tools we use, let’s finally try to predict the future development of the game.
First of all, the common thread underlying the Legend of Galactic Heroes and the U.S.-China conflict is the “difference in political systems.”
Professor BDM points this out, but I’ll use a line from Yan Wenli. Jan Wenli, when putting down the coup d’état in the capital, Heinessen, speaks to his generals as follows
“This is Jan Wenli, the commander. I want everyone to listen as it is. The battle is about to begin. It’s a shameless battle, but it’s meaningless if we don’t win it. We’ve made plans to win, so just take it easy and relax. All that’s at stake is the very survival of the nation. All that’s at stake is the very survival of a nation, and it’s not worth much compared to the freedoms and rights of individuals. Well, let’s get started, shall we?
In other words, an alliance is a democracy, albeit a corrupt one. Therefore, it is based on the freedom and rights of the individual. Individuals elect their own leaders and entrust them with the governance of the alliance.
The empire, on the other hand, is an autocracy. The emperor elects his entourage and delegates part of the work to them. To this end, wealth and power are distributed.
As Professor BDM has pointed out, there is no stability in a system of universal election. For a leader to have the support of all the people, the wealth and power must be distributed widely. And in return, elections tend to be subject to the whims of the people.
In a way, it’s similar to Kirchice’s earlier point, “The better the man, the sooner he dies”. They don’t give wealth and power to only certain people, so they don’t have a stable base of support.
Empires, on the other hand, distribute wealth to a few, so they have a stable base of support. Incidentally, some countries in the north are developing destructive weapons, but this is possible because the developers are given preferential treatment.
The more uneven the distribution of wealth and power is, the richer the content of the distribution. That’s why empires are often long-lived. The only thing that threatens its survival is health issues.
(If it is no longer healthy, it can no longer expect to distribute wealth in the future, so the influence of the leader will be reduced at once.)
That’s why, in the Legend of Galactic Heroes, Jan Wenli is not a subject of Lord Reinhardt. The Empire and the Alliance are incompatible.
And Jan Wenley doesn’t need to tell you that if Reinhardt gets the galaxy, the source of wealth to be distributed to his subjects will be reduced. So Reinhard’s successors will mimic the empire that he overthrew.
This is what is called imperialism.
The U.S. and China are not imperialist, but they share the same framework of “a few sharing the wealth and power”.
And even worse, it is not a special person at the top who is rumored to be “teleportable”. It is a matter of choosing among a small group of people.
This forms a picture of not only a lack of stability at the top, but a fierce power struggle. Therefore, in order to stay at the top of a small team, the rivalry is eliminated as much as possible, and at any rate, the team tries to create a track record that will be valued within the team.
So essentially, like the empires and alliances of the Legend of the Galactic Heroes, the US and China are incompatible. Even if the relationship is good for a period of time, in the long run the alliance is plagued by a chipping away at it.
This is why Alliance politicians try to launch an offensive against the Empire despite the fact that their national power is exhausted. However, if the empire falls, they need to take responsibility and take care of the people, which is a difficult task.
Therefore, the alliance would not aim for complete relevance, but would focus on containment.
So again, to quote Jan Wenley’s conversation with Colonel Schoenkopf during the capture of Iserlohn, it goes like this
Permanent peace has never existed in the history of mankind. So I’m not peeping at it. But there have been decades of peace and prosperity. If I am to leave a legacy to the next generation, peace is the best way to go. It is the responsibility of the next generation to maintain the peace that was given to us by the previous generation. If each generation remembers its responsibility to the next, the result will be long-lasting peace. If we forget, the legacy of our ancestors will be eaten up and we will have to start from scratch. Well, that would be nice, too.
Therefore, if the people involved are rational, their prediction of future developments will be in the form of a separation of the eastern and western economies, as in the past.
Although we didn’t use the magic of the memo this time, by organizing the positions and statements/actions of the people involved, we can deepen our analysis of the current situation and predict what will happen in the future.
It’s nice to live in a world where technology that can be used by anyone, even those without special intelligence or ability, is available to the public. However, when you look at it the other way around, there are differences between individuals depending on how well they can use these tools.
Jan Wenli also refers to individual freedom and rights, but not to “equality”. It may be a bit too much of a worm to think that if someone else is working hard, they should just share the wealth without trying.
Of course, even if people say it’s impossible or difficult to work hard, they still have the right to live. Politics is the art of managing that right in a way that satisfies everyone as much as possible, and I look forward to the continued success of the people involved.
I hope that the people involved will continue to play an active role. See you soon.